Electric Currents

LA Times predictions - part 10
JR posted in Web news, Devices on January 3rd, 2006

Excellent article by Sallie Hofmeister of the LA Times highlighting her predictions for the coming year.  Whether you agree with any of her predictions or not, there are several in the article which are well-worthy of attention from my readers.

The section which appears to have caught the attention of the tech community was her rather nebulous statements about Google getting into the consumer hardware business.  Slashdot offered and early exposure. Later, C-Net’s News.com started placing it on their “News From The Web” section. The original article is pretty mild in its statement, “Google will unveil its own low-price personal computer or other device that connects to the Internet.”

The article then goes on to talk about unnamed sources reports that Google has been in negotiations with Wal-Mart to sell a “Google PC”. Speculatively running a Google-provided non-Microsoft operating system, it would supposedly be priced at a couple hundred dollars.

Alternatively, the article also points to a Bear Stearns analyst report that speculated about soemthing called “Google Cubes”. These are supposed to be a small hardware device that can connect a variey of devices and distribute media.

Last, in further support of something important happening with Google is the fact that Google’s co-founder, Larry Page, will be giving a keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Show on January 6.

I’ll shoot my mouth off now and apologize later.  While a Google PC is definitely doable (and would likely be Linux-based given their expertise), I think that this is a non-starter. Other than the novelty and a presumed tight link to Google’s existing services, it can’t help but run up against the wall that has defeated other Windows challengers; software selection and compatibility versus Microsoft’s Windows.

I first became aware of the speculative Google Cube from a November article by Robert X. Cringley. As he usually does, there is lots of excellent speculation and ideas, but little in the way of hard facts.  That would appear to be much of the foundation of the Bear Stearns analyst report. More than the LA Times article speculated, Cringley speculated at a wide ecosystem that the Google Cubes would enable from multimedia distribution to a home alarm system.  While a cheap device individually, it needs a massive and therefore expensive implementation of the devices.

Given the need for massive distribution of the Cubes, it suggests a reason for negotiations with Wal-Mart.  Given that the PC would be destined for a troubled life, I hope that the keynote is about the Google Cube and that Larry pulls a Steve Jobs-like surprise and is able to have the Cubes appear in Wal-Mart shortly after the announcement (one would hope the day of the speech).

More from Sallie Hofmeister’s article in part 2.

LA Times predictions - part 20
JR posted in Windows, Web news on January 3rd, 2006

This is the second part of my commentary about the excellent article by Sallie Hofmeister of the LA Times.

After the initial part of the article about Google, she goes on to talk about Microsoft’s actions in the wake of its failed attempt to win AOL’s search business.  Given that Google retained that place by taking a 5% stake in AOL, Microsoft is now supposedly in the market for some other way of capturing more market for its Internet ambitions.  The article points at several expensive candidates; Yahoo (at $90+ billion), InterActiveCorp (of Ask Jeeves, Expedia, Ticketmaster and more), or the crown jewel, Time Warner itself.

Microsoft is facing a challenging year.  Google appears to have the momentum, the means and the will to press that advantage.  Microsoft’s secure bases are looking less secure than at any recent time.  Windows is on hold waiting for the release of Vista late in 2006 and continues to suffer imaging-damaging security breaches on what appears to be a bi-weekly basis.  Microsoft Office, meanwhile, is suffering in comparison to its own earlier versions and will be having trouble defining a compelling reason to upgrade when the next version is released.

Next, Microsoft is gambling on finding some way of making the transition to web-based services while retaining their existing base.  So far, Microsoft’s Live selections are showing a bit too much “me too” offerings.  Don’t count them out, but Microsoft hasn’t shown the same sort of skill in dealing with the web as they did on the desktop.  With the restrictions incumbent on a convicted monopolist, they may find it difficult to recapture that same dominance.

The remaining bulk of the article discusses the media merry-go-round of the executives at the various television and movie companies.

BellSouth & Tiered Access0
JR posted in Web news on January 6th, 2006

It looks like BellSouth is pressing forward with their plan to establish tiered Internet service. The Wall Street Journal is reporting today that it is currently in negotiations with a movie company and with an Internet gaming company to deliver their services at a higher priority.

This is something that they started speaking about in late November 2005, when their chief technologist, William L. Smith, suggested that companies should pay for transiting the telco networks. See the coverage in the Washington Post.